About ETF Pilot

ETF Pilot is a small collection of calculators. Each one answers a question that comes up constantly if you hold an ETF that tracks something else — gold, silver, or Bitcoin:

• If gold reaches $5,000, what will my GLD shares be worth?
• If IBIT is trading at $50, what does that imply about the Bitcoin price?
• Is silver cheap relative to gold right now?

Brokerages do not answer these directly, and the arithmetic is easy to get wrong by hand because the ratio between an ETF and the asset it tracks is not fixed — it drifts as fund fees are deducted.

Every price on this site is pulled from a named source and refreshed continuously. We do not use scraped or unattributed data.

• Gold and silver spot prices come from the public quote feed of Swissquote, a FINMA-regulated Swiss bank. We take the midpoint of the bid and ask across all quoted spread tiers rather than a single figure.
• The Bitcoin price comes from Kraken, using the same bid/ask midpoint method.
• ETF prices come from Futu’s market data API, delayed by the exchange’s standard reporting interval.

Most sites that do this conversion use a fixed number of ounces — or a fixed number of Bitcoin — per share. That number is not actually fixed, so those sites gradually drift out of accuracy. We derive the ratio from live prices instead:

ratio = ETF price ÷ reference asset price

Two decisions matter more than anything else in that formula.

We use the spot price, not the futures price. Gold and silver ETFs track the LBMA spot benchmark, not COMEX futures. Futures trade at spot plus the cost of carry — interest, storage and insurance — which is typically 0.5% to 1% and changes as contracts roll. Using futures as the denominator would bake that spread into every conversion.

We only sample while both markets are open. An ETF trades only during US market hours, but gold, silver and Bitcoin trade for far longer. Sampling outside those hours compares a frozen ETF price against a live reference price, and the ratio drifts. Bitcoin is the extreme case: it trades through the weekend while the ETFs do not, so a ratio sampled on a Sunday would be badly wrong by Monday.

This is a calculator, not investment advice. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

The conversions produce a theoretical fair value. ETF shares trade on an exchange and can move to a premium or discount against the assets they hold, particularly in volatile markets or for smaller funds. Always check a live quote before acting.

If a number on this site looks wrong, we want to know. Data pipelines break, sources change, and formulas have edge cases. Report anything that looks off and we will look into it.